AAA What the experts predict for 2011

What the experts predict for 2011

John Taysom, chairman, Global Corporate Venturing

Big issue: Now we know that leverage does not produce growth, how do we get back to growth? What public policies do we have to adopt to encourage targeted endowments to supplement the tax-and-spend state? If empirical research shows that targeted endowments, run by the endowment founders who are encouraged to give earlier in their lifetimes, are more efficient thangovernment tax-and-spend then how do we build this into overall fiscal policy?

Repeat: England’s cricket team making double centuries against India at home and Australia away.

Not repeat: Rioting on the streets of London.

Ralf Schnell, chief executive of Siemens Venture Capital

Big issue: The VC industry has shown a remarkable increase in spending in the industrial and energy space, driven by the clean-tech euphoria and also strongly supported by corporate venturing. In 2011 and beyond, these deals have to be justified by after-investment performance.

Dominique Mégret, head of Swisscom Ventures

Big issues: Whether the economic recovery be confirmed and the IPO window finally open for teccompanies or the number of VCs keep declining, leading to lower competition for good deals and healthier VC returns. Also important will be whether Asian (especially Chinese) companies become major buyers of European and US-based tech companies.

Repeat: Broad communication of the successful corporate venturing models so they become part of best- practice corporate strategies and public opinion to continue looking at them as an integral part of the innovation ecosystem and also realise young companies, especially those backed by independent and corporate venture capital firms, are key to growth in mature westernworld economies.

Not repeat: Overhyped valuations in fashionable segments, for example online gaming, social networking, clean-tech; the lack of flotations;and the overregulation of the venture industry by treating it the same way as hedge funds and private equity firms doing leveraged buyouts.

Mike Dolbec, managing director of LG Electronic’ Innovation Ventures

Big issue: My job is a function of the health of the domestic VC industry, which is seeing a contraction of people after a drought in exits. VCs are unsure if they have the right model or need to transform.

Repeat: Good exits.

Not repeat: Recession.

Rob Trice, senior managing director SK Telecom Ventures

Big issue: Re-recession, especially in the second half of the year. We are not out of the woods.

Repeat: The rise of financially-focused corporateventuring funds. Vacancy rates in Palo Alto have fallen from 20% to 2% as firms take space to venture, partneror just scout for innovation.

Not repeat: The overabundance of angel-financed,web 2.0 start-ups, which is unfortunate.

Marcos Battisti, managing director at Intel Capital

Big issues: The EVCA and BVCA [European and British trade bodies] are not representing VC at all. This is a tough year and the industry really needs a lobbying body that defends its interests. There is still an uncertain economic outlook, especially in Europe, and western Europe is an ugly word for LPs. The worry is the VC industry will seriously shrink in western Europe, although the top European VCs have returns which are pretty good and we need to be able to show LPs that Europe offers good opportunities for people who are experienced. Governments are trying hard to drive innovation – can we get a direct line with them to assist on their thinking – the top VCs will need to do this as [trade bodies are not]. Can VC firms fund the opportunities as Europe still shows alot of innovation?

George Coelho, head of venture capital at Good Energies

Big issue: The rise of the corporate investor, with many new entrants from Asian firms, and a lot of stealth investments. The most important issue is the return of exits. A few more years of this and there will not be a venture industry or any corporate venturers, but not enough people have yet left the building as dying VC firms. We need bubbles, all the money is made there, and there is still a bubble in clean-tech.

Frederic Hanika, head of M&A at Software AG

Big issue: There will be more corporate venturing in software companies, and these entrepreneurs will also change their attitude towards corporate venturing.

Erik Sebusch, partner at CMEA Capital

Big issue: The way private equity firms charge fees.  The excess must stop.

Repeat: Valuations come down a bit, worried about some social network potential bubbles,  Also hope to see corporate venturing units avoid the herd mentality toward investment areas.

Not repeat: Tax uncertainty.

Jeff Markowitz, managing partner of global venture capital at Heidrick & Struggles

Big issue: Valuations are through the roof, which sets ourselves up for potential challenge.

Repeat: Pace of US venture deals and activity.

Peter Bryant, president of TechTransfer

Big issue: Better alignment of corporate venturing to parent company’s strategy.

Repeat: New Zealand rugby team All Blacks to carry on winning through this year’s World Cup.

Not repeat: Government stimulus – there is $3 trillion of cash sitting in companies that could be spent in the US.

Simon Walker, partner of Taylor Wessing

Big issue: Corporate venturing to go from strength to strength as there is an increasing shortage of capital, especially in mould-breaking technology, and it is a good way for companies to get up to speed.

Repeat: Merger and acquisition activity, just preferably not all in December.

Russell Pyne, managing partner Atrium Capital

Big issue: How the world of VC changes as a result of what it has been through.

Repeat: Access to interesting investment opportunities.

Not repeat: Let us hope the US government can avoid another trillion-dollar deficit in 201.

Andrew Gaule, founder H-I Network

Big issues: Corporate venturing investments will become more important as cornerstone and validating investors, especially in sectors such as clean-tech and health, that are asset intensive and have long lead times to come to maturity. Financial return is now a necessary hygiene factor for corporate VCs’ survival but they will now need their actions to show their strategic relevance. Expect more industries to recognise the massive opportunities and threats from emerging markets.

Alliott Cole, partner at Octopus Ventures

Big issue: 2011 will be a fantastic year to partner exceptional entrepreneurs.

Repeat: Further UK government initiatives beyond the Entrepreneurs’ Passport and investment in Tech City.

Not repeat: Any changes in capital gains tax treatment which work to diminish the returns that successful entrepreneurs and their founding teams make on exit.

Alexis Bogaert, head of Dexia Private Equity

Big issue: A scarcity of money available for private equity (PE) will become more evident due to some fundamental shifts in flow of funds and coincidence of certain prohibitivetrends, such as the shift from defined benefit to defincontribution pension funds, Basel III regulation on banks, insurers and other financial institutions. At worst this translates into a Darwinistic event leading to extinction of certain types of PE partnership.

Jonathan Coker, partner of MMC Ventures

Big issue: Large corporations with accumulated cash reserves are currently the most active players in the mergers and acquisitions market and this will continue to drive VC decision-making processes. At the other end, there will be a rise in innovative early-stage businesses waiting until they are generating revenue before going out to raise VC funding.

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