AAA Tsinghua’s smart money

Tsinghua’s smart money

While some commentators are scratching their heads over Tsinghua University’s unsolicited $1.3bn buyout offer of smartphone chipset manufacturer Spreadtrum Communications, it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that the institution wants in on the smartphone market.

The technology behind the smartphone would even have Captain Jean Luc Picard ditching his tricorder, but what’s more astonishing is the ravenous rate at which the smartphone has spread. In the US, the smartphone has gone from consumer availability to a 50% market penetration within 10 years, the fastest uptake of any technology in the history of the States.

Perhaps more relevant to Tsinghua, China has over a billion mobile customers and over 300 million of those are 3G subscribers, outstretching the US’ 208 million, thusly presenting itself as the primary target for smartphone manufacturers and the largest mobile subscriber market in the world. Chinese smartphone manufacturers themselves are on the up, now representing 29% of the global smartphone market compared to 13.2% from last year, gobbling up a bigger chunk of the rapidly growing sector. By 2017, it is estimated that 95% of mobile shipments in China will be smartphones and account for a worldwide share of 73% of all mobile shipments, equating to 1.5bn smartphones, according to market analyst Canalys.

Furthermore, Spreadtrum has shifted from manufacturing chipsets for the global standard GSM handsets, and is now focusing on the Chinese 3G standard, TD-SCDMA, which has been developed to reduce dependency (and patent costs) on Western technology. The Shanghai-based firm’s customers accounted for 50% of TD-SCDMA handsets sold in early trials of the Chinese-tech smartphones, indicating a solid market share as the chipsets spread in the East, and its shipments could grow by 300% this year as the firm looks to dominate the low-end of the Chinese market.

As a kicker, Spreadtrum will be releasing W-CDMA chips later this year, which an estimated 1bn devices will be using by 2015.

So while $1.3bn might seem like a big amount a university to be putting on the table, should the deal go through, Tsinghua will be paying a little over a dollar for each potential Chinese customer with all roads pointing towards a big return on the investment for the institution.

While this might seem as a bargain for Tsinghua, the Chinese state-backed institution could also open the door to Spreadtrum to take advantage of benefits and subsidies in its primary market target of China, giving it a competitive edge.

Sweetening the deal for Spreadtrum will be the close relations between the institution and firm following the University’s participation in the chipset manufacturer’s series A and B rounds through Tsinghua Holdings-backed Tsinghua Science Park Venture Capital.

Also keeping an eye on the deal on the venture front will be New Enterprise Associates (NEA), which started backing Spectrum in 2002 with a $19.8m series B round. It also took part in another round in 2006 when it invested $20m alongside Fortune Venture Investment Group in a series D round. As of the end of 2012, NEA maintained a 10.4% stake in the company.

There are, of course, some questions hanging over the bid, which markets reacted favourably to last week when, following the announcement, Spreadtrum’s share price jumped more than 16% overnight, consequently dragging up other chip manufacturers such as Qualcomm and Skyworks with it.

Spreadtrum’s strategy of serving the low-end of the market is a sound one that is seeing rapid growth. The TD-SCDMA phones shipped 28 million units in China during Q1 of 2013, a 390% increase from last year, according to research firm IDC. However, 4 out of 5 of those phones cost less than $200, meaning that Spreadtrum has a smaller gross profit margin (39% March ‘13) than rival Qualcomm (61% March ‘13), which focuses on the high end. Talking of Qualcomm, with a slow-down on the high-end market, will the competitor attempt to muscle in on Spreadtrum’s action?

Other questions persist, such as would Tsinghua delist Spreadtrum from the NASDAQ and move it back to China? Is Tsinghua and the inevitable management changes it would bring compatible with Spreadtrum’s culture? Would customers such as Samsung and HTC stop using Spreadtrum’s chipsets if it was bought up by Chinese state-owned Tsinghua Holdings (perhaps not so much of a worry with Samsung and HTC reporting tepid growth in light of market saturation as China-based Huawei and ZTE climb into the top 5 smartphone shippers)?

And, crucially, is the $1.3bn offer enough to ward off other potential bidders?

These are all considerations to keep in mind as Spreadtrum, which raised its revenue estimates for Q2 2013 to $270-$278m last week, evaluates the deal.

This article originally appeared on our sister publication Global University Venturing.

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