As a global, multimedia publishing group dedicated to serving the intermediaries, such as corporations, universities and governments, directing funding to entrepreneurs in the innovation economy, we have expanded over these past five years thanks to your support, feedback and good fortune. (Read Mawson’s slide-deck and those from others at the conference, at this link.)
First, an apology.
Those who heard me at the time I was setting up Global Corporate Venturing back in 2010 and who attended our first Symposium would have heard me talk about starting the company to test a hypothesis. This theory was that, as the world emerged from the global financial crisis, debt was less likely to rise by the same rate as it had in the 30-year period from 1980. This, in turn, would likely lead to commoditisation of leverage and a focus on equity growth as a competitive advantage.
But as our founding motto, coined by enlightenment philosopher David Hume, says: “Truth springs from argument among good friends.”
And among you all as good friends, I’m happy to say I was wrong – or not right, yet.
Global debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) has continued to rise, from 246% in Q4 2000, to 269% in the fourth quarter of 2007, to 286% in the second quarter of 2014.
And by amount it seems bigger, a $112 trillion increase from $87 trillion to $142 trillion to $199 trillion, in this time, led by corporate and government debt.
China’s debt quadrupled to $28 trillion between 2007 and 2014.
But, fortunately for us all, neither has innovation and its funding slowed dramatically. Googler Ray Kurzweil as part of his theory of singularity estimates by 2023 you will be able to buy a device for $1,000 equal to the intelligence of one human brain.
This technological drive will continue to create a wealth of opportunity and disruption.
It will also require a wealth of funding to see it brought to light. For our Early Stage Report published today – and to which thanks for our partners at the European Commission via Tilburg University, Kauffman Fellows in the US and Russian Venture Company for the support in this project – I looked at where the sources of innovation capital comes from. This built on work on the US innovation capital ecosystem by our platinum sponsor, Silicon Valley Bank, a few years ago and extended it to a more international comparison.
The results show a surprising answer. There is more funding for innovation in Europe at $1.25 trillion than the US’s $940bn. Counter-intuitive.
But when you look at the sources or type of this funding, and always allowing that correlation is not causation, it appears Europeans has more debt than equity working at a ratio of two to one on behalf of innovation than their American peers’ one to two.
Having raised our own growth equity round last year, I can personally testify that the active engagement of outside shareholders and a wise and experienced chairman brings a creative and ultimately positive dynamic that a bank loan or overdraft lacks.
Growth equity brings outside experience and, most importantly, a wider network – so thanks to our shareholders 24 Haymarket for introducing us to Sir George Buckley, former 3M CEO, who you will hear later. Silicon Valley in the US remains unparalleled because of its ecosystem, of which debt has a vital part to play but it is so vibrant because all the options are available and the culture supporting entrepreneurs and growth is so strong.
On important metrics, such as friends, family, angel, crowdfunding and government and corporate research and development, the US has a far deeper and more active pool of capital than in Europe, which is why we will be in January running with our new colleague, Christina Riboldi, who ran our partner’s Corporate Venturing and Innovation Partnering event for so many years, our first Global Corporate Venturing and Innovation Summit just outside of San Francisco in Sonoma wine country north of Silicon Valley.
But in Europe as elsewhere outside of the Valley, we are now at a tipping point – the theme for this Symposium – for venture in the innovation capital system.
Just looking at Global Corporate Venturing’s data, we see investments by volume are up 70%, while by dollars they have doubled over 2013. This is global increases, as the US, China, India and Europe all saw growth, and also across sectors.
Free cashflow is a help for corporate venturing programme. The top 50 US holders of cash account for $1.08 trillion, according to rating agency Moody’s, of which 90% have a CVC operation in-house or indirectly, according to Global Corporate Venturing.
And while there is a declining proportion of incumbents waiting to be disrupted without turning to venture as a tool in their battle, younger, smaller businesses less tied to capital distribution through share buybacks or dividends and interest payments are also setting up corporate venturing units. VC firm Accel Partners last week teamed up with DJI, a developer of drones for commercial and personal use, to launch a fund that will invest in hardware and software providers for the unmanned aerial vehicle ecosystem. DJI’s $10m SkyFund will seek to invest at least $250,000 in early stage companies via a standard convertible note or as part of a seed or series A equity round. Accel backed China-based DJI last month with a $75m round.
A look, courtesy of our partnerships with QBIX Analytics and Relevant Equity Systems, at the most active corporate venturing units last year – from Intel, Google, Qualcomm, Tencent, Alibaba to Samsung, Softbank, Novartis and HTGF – shows (in very small type) a range of new and old firms, Asian and western and across sectors and vehicle types and structures from government-sponsored, multi-corporate funds to balance sheet investing and annual commitments.
It is this diversity that is most heartening for the industry’s ultimate resilience. While some will struggle, others will thrive.
Part of thriving will come down to which units are the most adept at tapping into the innovation ecosystem and linking it to their parents’ goals.
Given most innovation comes from people who have worked at companies – startups or incumbents – or universities, it should be no surprise to see the connections between the two groups being close.
Instead, the Global Corporate Venturing survey for our Early Stage Report found of 114 corporations, 48.1% of the respondents said they looked to the universities and business schools for portfolio companies, with 37.7% looking for spin-outs from universities.
A related survey by Global University Venturing for the report of nearly 50 top universities showed three-quarters of those that answered spin out less than 10 startups per year but only half had a corporate-focused program.
And that is why, as well as the tremendous growth in the number and variety of university venturing programmes, we are seeing governments looking at how they integrate corporations with the SMEs and universities, such as BPIfrance’s Le Hub, Singapore’s NRF and here in the UK.
So, while I had expected debt growth to at least slow over the past few years I remain confident that the world is indeed tipping towards equity to help unlock the next series of innovations.