When you look at different energy vectors – biofuel, hydrogen, electricity and so on – it strikes me that the world of energy is actually fairly simple.
There are three things, in particular, to look at. One, where are the energy buffers – in the tank, car, petrol station or somewhere else? – two, the regulatory framework, and three, the capital and operating expenditures in the context of well-to-wheel lifecycle costs.
If you do more renewable on the power grid – which more countries are trying to do – that comes with problems of matching supply to demand according to how fast the wind is blowing. When surplus energy is generated, hydrogen is actually a very good way to store energy and quite a cost-effective one – certainly more cost-effective than flow batteries.
And then there is the carbon capture and storage debate. Countries will use the coal they have, because unlike renewables they can switch it on and off easily, but it is not very clean. Precombustion carbon capture and storage can use Victorian technology to gasify the coal to form a hydrogen-enriched gas which can be cleaned using a refinery type of cleaning kit which leaves pure hydrogen on one side and CO2 on the other, which you pump back into the ground. That could yield a lot of hydrogen.
There are long-run trends that are working in favour of the production of clean energy through hydrogen. And an industry has to come together – top to bottom – to develop and produce the products that people want to buy, at an appropriate price – hydrogen-fuel-cell- powered cars for example – alongside a viable supporting infrastructure.
History tells us that at various times there can be some rapid technology switches that have big implications for the way we live. Usually there are multiple factors that bring about the change, say three of four key drivers that can push a market in one direction so that things happen very quickly.
Mobile telephony is an example. You needed cell masts and phones to kick it off. To begin it was expensive. When the infrastructure was deployed it needed a catchment area, and then cell phone operators moved in with propositions that made commercial sense by getting many users on board at point of sale cheaply.
Ultimately it was a business model innovation more than a technology innovation. Look at the regulatory framework applying to vehicles and the direction it is moving in, the growing pressures internationally to reduce CO2 emissions, governments and cities interested in cleaner technologies in all areas, including transport – where we believe we have a unique contribution to make with commercially viable technology. I think we are on the cusp of one of these technology switches.