Anyone delving into the business of making predictions, whether in technology or otherwise, needs only look at 2016 to understand it is a pastime for people who do not mind being proven wrong. But, as I look ahead, I do believe several technologies we have collectively wondered about for years will gain significant momentum in 2017, leading to new ways to work and live and consume information and entertainment.
From my vantage point – one that gives me the privilege of working daily with corporate venture leaders and developers of the latest technologies – change is faster, bigger, and then faster again. I see the corporate venture and innovation groups becoming more and more important to the innovation economy, and in the dawn of the age autonomous cars, I know they will be keeping their eyes on the road ahead. Here is what I will be watching for in 2017.
- Five years ago Marc Andreessen famously wrote: “Software is eating the world”. He was right, of course. Now, there is talk that the need to build huge databases to succeed is impeding new startups. I disagree. The ease of starting a company is increasing, and the improved IPO market and available capital will embolden entrepreneurs. At the same time, open-source initiatives in a number of areas are paving the way for the next wave of startup innovation.
- I am intrigued by the announcement that, for all of its success in the cloud, Amazon is opening its first store, slated to debut in Seattle in early 2017. The concept of “Amazon Go” stores is that artificial intelligence (AI) figures out whether you are grabbing toilet paper or cereal, and automatically adds it to your tab in the cloud. If technology is meant to solve problems, this is one I endorse.
- Speaking of AI, its promise has been debated for decades, but in the next two years it appears poised to be the next breakout technology. Some visionaries are predicting the AI revolution will surpass mobile and cloud computing, and be on par with the internet in terms of shaping our lives. Advances in sensors for data collection and prediction algorithms are, for example, saving lives, whether it is predicting bad weather or preventing cyberterrorism. Ask Jeeves, founded in 1996, seems so quaint now, when you have consumer-facing AI in the form of Siri, Alexa, Cortana and now Jarvis. These personal assistants are still considered mostly playthings to get an Uber, a game score or movie times, but they are gaining in usefulness. In December, Mark Zuckerberg unveiled some of the features of his automated home, including a face recognition system that allows friends to come in automatically.
- Lots of industry heavyweights are betting big on virtual, augmented and mixed reality. No one seems quite able yet to satisfy the consumer demand for lightweight, untethered headsets with content that seamlessly marries the virtual and real worlds. But I think we are getting close. Remember life without your mobile phone? Someday soon, we will not remember it without a sleek wireless headset beaming high-quality 3D images.
- From the ninth floor of our San Francisco office, I have been watching a new building go up next door that may become the terminus for California’s high-speed rail. However, when it comes to leapfrogging a technology and accelerating travel, I have my eye on Hyperloop. Dubai is seriously considering adopting Hyperloop, a concept introduced by serial entrepreneur and Tesla co-founder Elon Musk and brought to life by the Hyperloop team, to whisk passengers around in levitated compartments. Dubai to Abu Dhabi, a 100-mile trip, would take just over 10 minutes. In May, Hyperloop One had the first public test of its technology, and now Dubai is working with the company on a cargo track0.
- Speaking of Elon Musk, our homes are destined to be transformed into energy producers and look good while doing it. Musk’s October announcement that he had installed solar shingles – solar cells encased in glass to replicate shingle – on the back lot at Universal Studios demonstrated his trademark showmanship, and came three weeks before shareholders approved Tesla’s $2.1bn all-stock offer for solar energy company SolarCity. But it was also seriously impressive and may just be the next big leap for the home solar market.
- According to Stratistics MRC, the global personalied medicine market reached $94.5bn in 2015. Sometimes known as precision medicine, the idea is to turn one-size-fits-all medicine on its head. With the help of next-gen gene sequencing and a general public policy push for improved care, the market is forecast to nearly double in size by 2022. In 2016, the US National Institutes of Health announced Google’s life sciences arm, Verily, and Vanderbilt University would begin enrolling volunteers to supply personal data that will eventually be used to improve health and medical treatment. It is a complex undertaking that may take time to bear fruit, but I heartily applaud the start.
- I do not know what is more fun – seeing videos of cool people riding around in driverless cars oblivious to the outside world, or reading cloak-and-dagger tales of secret labs in Cupertino. Either way, autonomous is here, almost. I am a huge supporter, and feel the momentum is accelerating and this year will be pivotal. Fleets and freeways seem relatively straightforward, and autonomous market leaders are working on urban driving.
We live in interesting times, and I can confidently predict that 2017 will be no exception.